As India approaches the pivotal 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey has shed light on the political currents shaping the nation’s future. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is poised to secure a third term with a commanding majority. However, it is likely to fall well short of its “400 Paar” target.
According to the MOTN poll, should the Lok Sabha elections be held today, the BJP-led NDA would likely retain its grip on power by clinching 335 seats, comfortably surpassing the 272-seat threshold necessary for government formation. However, the alliance as a whole is expected to lose 18 seats, with the biggest gainer being the INDIA coalition.
The Mood of the Nation’s February 2024 edition is based on a survey of 35,801 respondents in all Lok Sabha seats. The poll was conducted between December 15, 2023, and January 28, 2024.
The INDIA opposition bloc, which includes the Congress, is expected secure 166 seats, but will fall significantly short of posing a substantial challenge to the NDA’s stronghold.
In terms of party-wise seat share, the BJP is anticipated to secure 304 out of 543 seats, affirming its capacity to command a simple majority independently. The saffron party betters its 2019 tally of 303 by one. The Congress is set to be the second largest party with 71 seats, up 19 from last time. Others, including regional parties and independents, will bag the remaining 168 seats.
The MOTN survey, meticulously conducted through interviews across all parliamentary constituencies, reflects a populace swayed by the BJP’s blend of welfare initiatives and a resonant nationalistic narrative. Mean- while, the opposition’s struggle to present a unified front and leadership alternative to PM Modi appears to be a critical impediment to their electoral ambitions.
However, a broader pattern observed across India aligns with the trend in Assembly polls, where the BJP faced challenges in translating its national dominance into state election victories. In states with strong regional parties, the saffron party was seen grappling with regional-national variations in voting behaviour. Uttar Pradesh remains an exception, where the BJP has successfully countered regional forces without the need for alliances with regional players.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s influence on the nation’s political landscape remains significant as he gears up for a potential third term. The MOTN survey sheds light on the public’s perception of his tenure, with a focus on his legacy, the government’s achievements and failures, and the pressing issues facing the country today.
Here’s a detailed look at the findings of the Mood of the Nation survey:
1. Ram Mandir construction is seen as the most defining aspect of PM Modi’s legacy, with 42 per cent of respondents acknowledging its importance.
2. Raising India’s global stature is another notable achievement, with 19 per cent of the population feeling it’s a key part of his legacy.
3. The revocation of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir stands out for 12 per cent of those surveyed.
4. The handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is viewed as the biggest success, with 20 per cent of respondents giving credit to the PM Modi-led NDA government.
5. The Ram temple consecration again features prominently, with 17 per cent considering it a major achievement.
6. Maintaining a corruption-free image is recognized by 14 per cent of the population.
7. Unemployment emerges as a significant concern, with 18 per cent of respondents viewing it as the biggest failure of the current government.
8. Price rise tops the list of failures at 24 per cent, reflecting the economic challenges faced by citizens.
9. The management of the Covid-19 pandemic is seen as a failure by 13 per cent, indicating mixed opinions on the government’s response.
10. Unemployment is the most pressing issue for 26 per cent of Indians, highlighting the need for job creation and economic reform.
11. Price rise is a significant concern for 19 per cent of the population, emphasizing the impact of inflation on daily life.
12. The nation appears divided on whether the Modi government has successfully reduced corruption, with 46 per cent saying ‘Yes’ and 47 per cent saying ‘No’.
