With the Middle East already reeling from the war in Gaza, Israel has struck Iran in the latest tit-for-tat exchange between the two nations, whose decades long shadow war is now out in the open and threatens to drag the region deeper into conflict.
Iranian media has reported explosions, but an Iranian official has told the press that those were caused by air defense systems. Iranian State media has said three drones were shot down over the central city of Isfahan. Explosions were also reportedly heard in the cities of Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz as well as in Syria an Iraq, as per media reports.
Iran’s substantial aerial attack on Israel on 14 April had redefined strategic deterrence, following decades of enmity and shadow war between the two countries. This marks the first time Iran has launched a direct military attack on Israel.
Iran launched around 331 drones, cruise and ballistic missiles at Israel, in response to a recent Israeli strike on a building in the Iranian embassy complex in Syria that killed several of Iran’s top commanders from the IRGC, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Gaurd Corps. Israel’s strike has widely been seen as a breach of the 1961 Vienna Convention, which prohibits countries from attacking or harming the diplomatic compounds of other countries, as diplomatic premises are viewed as sovereign territory under international law.
What happened in during Iran’s attack on Israel?
The attack had been widely anticipated with Iran publicly vowing revenge after Israel struck its Syrian embassy on 1 April.
On the night of the attack, that is 14 April, Israel and US detected early on and publicly announced that Iran had launched drones and missiles towards Israel. Consequently, the airspace over Israel, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt, Syria were closed as the drones and missiles headed towards Israel. Of the 331 drones and missiles that were launched at Israel, the Israel Defense Forces have stated that they successfully intercepted 99% of them, with only 7 ballistic missiles making their way into Israeli Airspace and hitting the Nevatim Air Base. Israel achieved this astonishing level of missile defence success with the help of its partners US, Britain, Jordan, France and others all of whom coordinated and militarily intercepted the incoming Iranian drones and missiles. There was no loss of life in Israel due to the attack with only minor damage reported.
Israel used two primary defensive weapons systems: the Iron Dome and the Arrow 3, to thwart the attack and intercept the drones and missiles launched from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
Even as the attack was ongoing, Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations stated on social media that “the matter can be deemed concluded. Hours after the attack, Iran declared that if Israel takes retaliatory action, Iran’s new response will be considerably more severe.”
The fact that Iran struck the Nevatim Air Base is significant as this is the same airbase from which Israeli warplanes took off to attack the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The strike on Nevatim is symbolically important for Iran.
What led to the direct Iranian attack on Israel?
Iran and Israel have been locked in a shadow war for decades, engaging in clandestine operations and attacking each other’s interests on land, sea, air and in cyberspace. Iran’s nuclear programme in particular has been a consistent target of Israel and US operations. Iran in turn has supported powerful proxy forces in the middle east which include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the West Bank and Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.
Recently in 2021, Israel killed Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and in 2022 assassinated a Revolutionary Guards commander, Col. Sayad Khodayee. This shadow war dramatically escalated on 1 April, when Israeli warplanes struck the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, killing least three senior commanders and four officers.
Iran vowed retaliation to this attack, after the UN Security Council failed to condemn the strike on the diplomatic compound.
Scale and Stakes of the Aerial Attack
Iran’s assault of around 331 attack drones and missiles on Israel, constitutes a “substantial and serious direct attack” according to IDF spokesperson Peter Lerner.
The attack happened in 2 phases: 170 drones were launched first, which travel slowly and took several hours to cross the 1500 km distance between Iran and Israel. In the second phase, Iran launched around 120 ballistic missiles each carrying a 100 kg warhead and dozens of cruise missiles. The attack was intercepted across the aerial spectrum, from 100 feet above ground to outer space, indicating the extraordinary scale and huge complexity of the assault. At least one Iranian ballistic missile was intercepted outside the earth’s atmosphere.
Israel’s superior military platforms such as Iron Dome, Arrow, David’s Sling, Patriot were used to neutralise the attack but they have also proven very expensive, with estimates suggesting that it cost Israel up to a Billion dollars to stop the incoming 300 plus drones and missiles.
The attack indicates that a new ‘red line’ has been crossed in a simmering Middle East, after much of the rules were already violated on the 7th of October 2023, Hamas terror attack on Israel and Israel’s consequent war in Gaza.
US Military Umbrella in Middle East
Israel’s defence took place under the US military Central Command (CENTCOM) umbrella in the Middle East. General Michael E. Kurilla, Commander of US CENTCOM was in Israel just a day before the attack took place, and the US and Israel had an operational plan in place, very well ironed out in anticipation of Iran’s impending attack. Strong Israel and US signals intelligence, helped the two militaries understand exactly what Iran was planning to do in the attack.
The attack demonstrated that Israel has friends and a coalition in the region. With only 7 ballistic missiles making it into Israeli airspace, all the rest were shot down and intercepted outside of Israel, with the help of Israel’s friends and partners.
Israel is already involved in a Wider War
Following the attacks, there is fear about a wider war in the Middle East. Yet according to Israeli defence officials, Israel is already involved in a wider war starting 7 October 2023:
Hamas terror attacks on Israel (7 Oct 2023) : Thousands of Hamas-led militants stormed across the border into Israel, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking roughly 250 Israelis captive. The assault triggered a devastating war in Gaza, that has killed more than 30,000 people, mostly women and children, according to the UN.
Hezbollah joins the war, at a low level (8 Oct 2023) : A day after Hamas’ attack, the Iran-backed Hezbollah began firing toward Israel, setting off months of low intensity but deadly cross-border fighting that has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border.
Houthis start Red Sea attacks (Nov 2023) : The Houthis (Yemeni rebels) who are supported by Iran, launched a campaign of drone and missile attacks on global, particularly Israeli shipping assets in the Red Sea beginning in November, describing their efforts as a way to pressure Israel to end the war against Hamas.
Iran attacks Israel (14 April 2024) : Iran directly launched around 331 drones and missiles at Israel.
These 4 sources of military conflict and pressure indicate the true scale of what is happening in the region.
Following Iran’s attack, Israel’s War Cabinet has met thrice (14, 15 and 16 April) to determine Israel’s response to the attacks.
World Reactions, UNSC Meet and G7
US, Britain, India and many European countries have called for restraint and urged Israel not to retaliate. UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres has strongly condemned the “serious escalation” caused by the large-scale attack on Israel by Iran, cautioning that “neither the region nor the world can afford another war.”
The US and UK have clearly indicated that they will not support any offensive attack by Israel against Iran, calling for Israel to “take the win” and clearly indicating that they don’t want a war with Iran or an escalation.
The UN Security Council met on 15 April, to discuss Iran’s attack on Israel and the G7 Nations have condemned the attack and said they would work to try to prevent an “uncontrollable regional escalation” in the Middle East.
