In a significant escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, Moscow has changed its nuclear doctrine expanding the scope for the use of nuclear weapons in conflict. This major decision comes as Ukraine launches long range missiles, the US made ATACMs, to hit targets in the Kursk region of mainland Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a new nuclear decree, broadening the scope of Moscow’s use of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state, if that state is supported by nuclear powers; which in the current context of the war holds true for Ukraine, which is supported by NATO and the US as a major nuclear power. Russia still maintains the largest nuclear weapons arsenal in the world, and any nuclear conflict will be devastating for the entire planet.
Moscow’s decision comes on the 1,000th day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and within 24 hours of US President Joe Biden giving Ukraine permission to use US long-range missiles to strike deeper in Russian territory. The Biden administration, which is on its last legs as President-Elect Trump will be the new US President come January 2024, made the significant policy change, allowing Ukraine to use US-made ATACMS missiles which have a range of around 300 kms.
The Kremlin vowed on Tuesday to defeat Ukraine, saying Western support for Kyiv would have no impact on the conflict and that western aid “cannot affect the outcome of our operation. It continues, and will be completed.”
“The military operation against Kyiv continues,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
He also said that aggression by a non-nuclear state with the participation of a nuclear state is considered as a joint attack referring to Ukraine and its Western backers.
Peskov added that, Russia “has always viewed nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence,” and that they would only be deployed if Russia feels “forced” to.
NATO chief has said that Putin must not ‘get his way’ in Ukraine. However only a month back, he had said that he does not see an imminent danger of nuclear weapons from Russia despite “reckless and irresponsible” from the country.
The nuclear doctrine will also be extended to Russia’s close ally Belarus. This reflects Putin’s swiftness to force the West to back down while Russia continues its slow moving offence in Ukraine.
According to the Russian Defence Ministry, Ukrainian armed forces carried out their first strike in the Bryansk border region within Russian territory with ATACMS missiles. Russia has claimed to have shot down 5 ATACMS and damaged a 6th with its air defence systems. Reports indicate that the US has permitted Ukraine to only use the ATACMS in a limited region near the international Russia-Ukraine border and not elsewhere in Russia, in response to Russia deploying thousands of North Korean Troops in Kursk.
Thus even as the war escalates, a new tacit equilibrium seems to have been established between both sides. Ukraine can use the long range missiles in Kursk and Russia can make it easier to use nuclear weapons. It remains to be seen how this new strategic reality will impact the larger war.
The war between Russia and Ukraine, the deadliest conflict Europe has seen since the World War II, marks its 1,000th day today. Over one million people have reportedly either died or have been grievously injured since the beginning of the war.
Amid the grim reality of one of the deadliest wars of the 21st Century, cities, towns, and villages in Ukraine have been devastated and now lie in ruin. The loss of human life and material wealth keep mounting in a never-ending series of heartbreaking stories emerging from the war-torn country.
Both Russia and Ukraine have diminishing populations and have been struggling from even before the war. The staggering death count due to the war will thereby have far-reaching demographic implications for both nations.