With one day left for the US Presidential Elections, governments and people across the world are holding their breaths as one of the closest elections in modern American history plays out. With Americans set to make the choice between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, the consequences of the US elections and their reverberations will be felt globally.
The election to the White House comes at a time when the rules-based international order heralded by Washington D.C. over the last seven decades faces its most challenging moment in time.
A Harris presidency could see a continuation of incumbent President Joseph R. Biden Jr’s policies, which have infuriated close allies, such as Israel besides several others. On the other hand, a Trump presidency could potentially see the US move towards neo-isolationism, a 180-degree shift from the current American policy.
If the COVID-19 pandemic was considered as a generational era stress point, which led Biden to the White House in 2020, the next president will face a world rife with conflict, be it in Europe or West Asia, in East Asia, across Africa and even in its own neighbourhood–South America.
“This election can be perhaps one of the most consequential elections in the history of the US. If Donald Trump wins, he will come into a situation extremely different from 2016. The international order was not as dysfunctional then as it is now,” Harsh V. Pant, vice-president, Studies and Foreign Policy at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), explained to the Indian news outlet ThePrint.
Pant added: “Trump’s rhetoric is extremely unnerving towards (US’) European partners. Taking (Russian president Vladimir) Putin’s side, for example, in the Russia-Ukraine war is a challenge to the security which Europe has enjoyed so far.”
Harris, Pant points out, would offer some continuity to the Biden administration, given her role as the incumbent vice-president, even if her policy decisions could marginally differ from the current US president.
“Kamala Harris’ foreign policy credentials are thin. She does not seem to have a clearly formed perspective. The biggest danger of a Trump presidency is the uncertainty and chaos that comes with his leadership,” explained Rajesh Rajagopalan, a professor at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) also to ThePrint.
In Europe, the war with Ukraine has upended the very basis of the US-led international rules based order since 1945, challenging the very pillars upon which global security was premised on—peace and globalisation.
One of the current outcomes of the war is a more fractured order, with a new axis being created featuring Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang—nations who are not afraid if the case needs be to use its own military or in the case of Iran, which fund proxies across West Asia to challenge the US and its allies openly.
Global challenges for next US administration
The Israeli conflicts in Gaza and Southern Lebanon continue to threaten to escalate into a full-fledged war between Tehran and Tel Aviv, while the Houthis in Yemen have disrupted global shipping routes, especially in the Suez. All these actions in West Asia and by extension, Ukraine continue to be the major issues facing American foreign policy.
In the South China Sea, an increasingly aggressive China has carried out multiple war games surrounding the island of Taiwan, while attempting to block access to other navies and coast guards, as seen in the case of the Philippines.
In East Asia, North Korea has increased its cooperation with Russia, even reportedly sending thousands of troops to Ukraine in recent weeks, to aid Moscow’s efforts in its almost three-year long war. In Africa, the US or its allies have seen pro-West regimes fall, while Russian mercenaries have helped bring about new governments, especially in the Sahel region, who are keen for closer ties with Moscow and Beijing.
“Any change to its policy in the Russia-Ukraine war, especially by a Trump presidency would call into question the US’ global reputation as a treaty ally or as a partner in the Indo-Pacific in its strategic efforts against China,” said Pant.
The former US president on the campaign trail has promised to end the war in Europe as quickly as possible if elected. His plan, however, is extremely unclear on how this would come to fruition.
For Harris, any administration would continue its current policy of aiding the Ukrainian administration as it is in the US’ “strategic interest” to prevent any proposal of surrendering Kyiv’s territory to Moscow.
“All of Trump’s rhetoric on the election trail, especially to end the Russia-Ukraine war, is his attempt in building a contrast to what the current Democratic administration is doing. He wants to say the opposite of what is currently happening. He may not really cut any aid to Ukraine, but make the relationship more transactional,” foreign policy analyst Swasti Rao told ThePrint.
“A Trump administration would be more ruthlessly transactional with Ukraine and even his European allies. He may give Ukraine a window of opportunity to act, following which he may push for a peace deal and activate the lend-lease agreement.”
For European countries, the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is another worry, especially as Trump has made it clear that he will maintain the US’ membership in the military alliance if its continental allies would “pay” its fair share.
As Rao explains it, NATO countries and European allies have in recent years attempted to “Trump proof” their relationship with the US, especially with the creation of a new $100 billion fund within the military alliance, while moving certain strategic commands to its own bodies.
“A Trump return could accelerate the European Union’s defence procurements. The leaders across Europe are also signalling to Trump, that his focus on China for example cannot happen without strong allies. Withdrawing support from NATO would be a lose-lose proposition for US interests,” said Rao.
India & China
In recent years, both under Trump’s previous term and the current Biden administration, the US has pivoted towards competing with China strategically, especially across the Indo-Pacific. Both the candidates would offer a measure of continuity, especially in its approach to containing Beijing’s perceived growing geopolitical influence across the region.
However, Rajagopalan adds a word of caution for Indian foreign policy, especially if Trump returns to the White House and scrambles up its traditional partnerships and alliances, as a part of his neo-isolationist vision for the US.
“If the US’ partnerships and alliances are affected by Trump’s foreign policy, it would weaken India too. Such a policy that could potentially weaken the US’ global standing is definitely not in India’s interest,” explained Rajagopalan.
Pant points out that a Harris’ presidency would offer India a “degree of comfort” for New Delhi, given continuity from the Biden era. “Strategically there may not be much change, but slight weariness given her need to raise human rights issues with India for her domestic audience.”
Rajagopalan explained that a Harris administration may be a “shade more activist” about issues such as human rights and religious freedom, but that these are issues that are normally handled by the bureaucrats rather than at the political level, and are normal parts of the US’ agenda.
“These issues (human rights) are of high importance when brought up for India, but within the US it is much lower as an issue than other aspects of the ties between the two countries. The bureaucracy will handle it. However, Trump may not get involved in such a narrow issue personally,” he said.
The continuity would follow the deepening India-US defence and security partnership, which has seen multiple deals and agreements signed in recent years. However, Pant highlights that the Trump administration also had warm ties with New Delhi, even as he probably will raise the trade deficit between the two countries for his own domestic audience.
Even as ties across the spectrum improve between India and the US, the next president will have to also deal with the challenges in the relationship, such as the ‘foiled murder-for-hire plot’ of Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun.
“I do not think that even Trump would have taken the Pannun case lightly. The US has always believed that its own citizens cannot be killed on its own soil, by allies or partners. However, given that this is an extremely technical case, I doubt Trump will bother too much with it. It will be handled by the bureaucracy. The US has always figured out how to quarantine one issue, while maintaining other parts of the relationship,” said Rajagopalan.
He added that it will be a difficult issue but regardless of who enters the White House, the expectation of some form of accountability from India will continue.
“Biden has done more to converge the interests of Washington D.C. with India, in ways that actually matter. I personally feel that there will be continuity in the relationship with India and in the Indo-Pacific with whomever wins the White House,” said Rao.
The sense is that with India and China, either a Harris or Trump presidency would deviate from the current partnership. However, the current deficit in trade in favour of India could be an issue with a future Trump administration, given his protectionist policy positions.
“Trump may not pass a law specifically to target India on trade, but would focus on more general measures which would also sweep New Delhi under its radar. He would be more scattershot on trade policy, and that would impact India as well,” explained Rajagopalan.
Both Rao and Pant do not foresee a major change in how the next individual in the White House would drastically change the policy towards China.
“The elections are important as the US is a super power. This is a very dangerous moment we are living in. Be it the security order, economic order or the global digital order, the US is in the lead. Whoever leads in the global digital order going forward, will eventually lead the two orders. The US continues to have heft and, therefore, is extremely important,” said Rao.
